Why Experts Are Bullish on the Switch 2's First Five Years

The Switch 2 has arrived

Welcome to the first issue of Nintenkats! Sitting right next to me is a Switch 2, which I was able to successfully acquire after standing in line with more than 200 eager fans at a local Best Buy. The enthusiasm for the Switch 2 is unquestionable, but will it match the original Switch? Experts think it has a good chance — Ampere thinks that it will sell more than 100 million units by 2030 — but it’s unlikely to match the Switch. I delve into why while sharing my own launch day experience and some initial thoughts. I’ve also included some of the big headlines from launch day as well as videos you might find useful. All that in a moment, but first:

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A couple quick programming notes: I’ll be posting a roundup of all the Switch 2 games announced during tomorrow’s SGF showcase, so stay tuned. And stay tuned for a conversation with DF’s John Linneman about the Switch 2’s GameCube NSO tech next week, which will be available exclusively to premium subscribers. Okay, on with the newsletter!

The Kat Take: Why analysts are bullish on the Switch 2’s long-term prospects

It took eight long years, but the Nintendo Switch 2 is finally here. Last night I stood in line with eager Nintendo fans at a San Francisco Best Buy and picked up my console, which I swiftly spirited home to unbox and try out. I’ll talk a little more about my experience in a later section, but first I want to delve into the general mood around the Switch 2, which I would characterize as… mixed? Pessimistic? Much of the discussion has centered on its price, its awkward approach to physical games, and whether it can thrive in a market that also has the Steam Deck and the ROG Ally.

I have my own opinions, but to get a better sense of the Switch’s prospects, I reached out to several analysts for their own thoughts. My question: How will the Switch 2 fare in comparison to the Switch? And how will it be impacted by all the ways that the industry has changed since 2017?

I was surprised to find that they were almost all bullish on the Switch’s prospects, even amid the uncertainty around its price and the overall market. A new report by Ampere suggests that its install base could surpass 104 million by 2030. Their reasoning: pent up demand, with Switch 2 fans eager to spend on new games and content.

Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of the Japanese consultancy Kantan Games and a noted Nintendo observer, agrees. “I think the Switch 2 will hit at least the same level of success as the original device. It's tough to predict because of the chaos Trump's tariff policy is causing, but Nintendo does not need to worry about demand at all in year 1.”

The Game Business’ Chris Dring sees challenges to overcome, but also opportunities. “One of the challenges Nintendo often has when transitioning between platforms in the home space is related to audience. The active Wii audience had dwindled by the time the Wii U launched, which meant Nintendo almost had to start from scratch in building an audience for Wii U. Whereas this time, Nintendo has 128 million users over the 12 months to March 2025. Now convincing them to move from Switch 1 to Switch 2 isn’t easy as such, but it’s easier than having to build an audience from nothing. Especially with digital solutions, including the Nintendo account, making it easier to track and speak to those players.”

Rhys Elliott, head of market analysis at Alinea Analytics, notes that the original Switch was “heavily supply-constrained” when it launched in 2017.

“Early adopters – core gamers who have been begging for a more powerful Switch for years – will be the major buyers in [2025]  Launching with Mario Kart – one of Nintendo’s best-selling franchises – was also a shrewd choice for early adopters, and Mario Kart World’s Switch 2 exclusivity will help users upgrade,” Elliott says.

Another thing analysts agree on is that dedicated handhelds like the Steam Deck won’t meaningfully impact the Switch 2’s long-term prospects. The Ampere report, which was first covered in an issue of Dring’s newsletter on Wednesday, says that PC handhelds “do not post a thread to uptake of the Switch 2,” calling them “niche in terms of sales and are often priced significantly higher than Nintendo’s new console, while offering a different experience.”

As a Steam Deck owner myself, I agree. Both handhelds have filled different roles in my house, with the Switch being used for Nintendo games (shocking, I know) and the Steam Deck being more for tinkering. It has always struck me as much more of a hobbyist device than the Switch, which thrives on its reputation as a kid-friendly handheld. 

“Seventy percent to 80 percent of all Nintendo software sales come from first-party games, which means people buy Nintendo hardware to play Nintendo games on them,” Toto says. “So I don't believe the existence of other portable gaming machines has a substantial effect on Switch sales.

Both Toto and Elliott are also quick to dismiss claims that consumers might be confused by the similarity between the Switch 2 and Switch OLED boxes, with Elliott arguing, “Some consumers will be bemused, and there will likely be a few disappointed kids this holiday season, but the issue has been overblown somewhat. When people buy online, it’s clear what they’re purchasing. And in brick-and-mortar stores like BestBuy and GameStop, store assistants will likely quell any confusion at the [point of sale]. As someone who used to work in a game store myself, I’ve seen this first-hand.”

How it compares to the Switch

When the Nintendo Switch launched in 2017, I had just taken the reins as USgamer’s new editor-in-chief. I remember spending hundreds of dollars to ship a Switch review editor to the UK to my newly-hired guides editor, Tom Orry, could get to work on guides for The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild. When my own Switch arrived in March of that year, I remember thinking as I settled into bed to marathon Zelda, “Nintendo might be onto something here.”

Things have obviously changed a lot since then. The market for dedicated handhelds have exploded and games have become more expensive to develop – and that’s before you consider that the intervening years contained a literal global pandemic. In that time, Nintendo released a billion dollar movie, opened multiple theme parks, and briefly got the world excited for a piano made out of cardboard, among many other other endeavors. Under the guidance of Shuntaro Furukawa, it became more conservative, choosing to focus on its established characters rather than the wild innovation that characterized Nintendo under Satoru Iwata.

“It's such a dramatically different market today,” agrees Circana Executive Director Mat Piscatella. “ From the reach of live service games like Fortnite, to changing consumer preferences among younger players to mobile and PC platforms, to the macro environment (particularly with the current affordability and tariff situations)... the list of things that are similar when comparing today to 2017 would be a far smaller list than that of the differences. Of course, people still love Mario Kart, and Nintendo has done an amazing job of broadening its mass market reach through areas like film, licensing and theme parks. And Switch 2 is following up the best-selling hardware platform all-time in the US market, while the Switch did not have a similar advantage. It's very different, but also a bit the same?”

If you want to get a feel for how different things are in 2017, take a look at the the top 10 best-selling games on Switch by unit sales in 2017.

1. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 

2. Super Mario Odyssey 

3. Mario Kart 8 

4. Splatoon 2 

5. Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle 

6. ARMS 

7. 1-2-Switch 

8. Pokken Tournament 

9. Sonic Mania 

10. Super Bomberman R

Nintendo doesn’t have a Breath of the Wild or a Mario Odyssey this time around, not does it have Splatoon 2 – a consistent winner in Japan. It’ll have to rely on Mario Kart World to drive sales, with Donkey Kong Country Bananza, Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, Hyrule Warriors: Age of Imprisonment, and Pokemon Legends: Z-A also buoying Switch 2’s Year 1 library. On the third-party front there’s ports of Elden Ring, Borderlands 4, Final Fantasy 7 Remake Intergrade  and Cyberpunk 2077. Two sneaky big releases for Switch 2? Hollow Knight: Silksong and Hades 2, the latter of which will be a Switch 2 exclusive at launch. The Switch’s secret strength was always its connection to popular indies like Stardew Valley – a strength that figures to carry over to the Switch.

One stat that surprised me was that the split between physical and digital games was close to 50-50 on Switch. Elliott notes that in the last nine months of 2024, 51 percent of Switch software sales were digital. The number was even lower in the holiday period – 43.4 percent. That figures to change with the Switch 2, where physical carts will increasingly use Game-Key cards with data that must be downloaded online. Elliott sees it as Nintendo’s way of nudging players away from the preowned and rental markets.

Fans have predictably balked at this change, and Toto agrees with them, saying that he’s “not a fan at all” of the new system, though he thinks it’ll be good for Nintendo.

“People will get used to the concept over time, but I think Game-Key cards will drive players to digital quicker than in the current Switch generation. In my view, Switch 2 game cases are plain ugly, too,” Toto says. “And all this might be good news for Nintendo and publishers in the end, as physical games make them significantly less money.”

Early Excitement

One way or another, excitement is high for the Switch 2. When I picked up my console at a local Best Buy on Wednesday night, more than 200 fans were waiting in line. They sat in lawn chairs, played Mario Kart, and shared memories of previous launches. I stood in line for an hour with a man named Edwin, who said he had come directly to the store from the gym. We chatted about our favorite games, and I learned that his favorite Nintendo game is Super Smash Bros., with his main being Lucas (I’m sure he’s a nightmare to play against).

When I got into the store at around 9:30pm, it was already completely cleaned out of Pro Controllers. The remaining crates contained copies of Mario Kart World, Amiibos, and the new camera meant to be a key part of Nintendo’s social strategy. Incidentally, this is another area that fans and journalists have mostly laughed off, but analysts think it’s a good move overall.

“Nintendo’s brand has long been associated with social play within the home, and until now the Switch has neglected its online features,” Ampere’s report says. “In doing so, it has sometimes alienated time-poor fans – such as working adults – and failed to fully address shifting social trends among young consumers. Improving chat capabilities ensures the Switch 2 will continue to play a role in social gaming and prevents users from seeking these experiences elsewhere: 28% of churned Nintendo Switch Online subscribers in Ampere’s consumer survey stated that they unsubscribed as their friends were on other services.”

Omdia Senior Games Analyst James McWhirter agrees. “While Switch firmly established itself as the local multiplayer console of choice in the outgoing generation, GameChat tells us Nintendo is hungry to better support online-centric multiplayer experiences from the get-go. This should in turn grow NSO subscriptions if player habits skew more toward these games – launching the feature alongside tentpole multiplayer games such as Mario Kart World and Split Fiction is a good move. There’s also the social element, the idea that friends will share their own single player gameplay while hanging out in the same GameChat lobby. This could help Nintendo grow subscriptions beyond the trial period, if this resonates with the audience.”

I got a taste of Nintendo’s approach to social gaming when I got home and unboxed my Switch 2. After fiddling with the system transfer for a moment, I decided to just shift games piecemeal over to my Switch 2 using the slightly cumbersome Virtual Game Card system. Everything was going fine until my Switch’s battery died and disconnected from the internet, locking the games out of my Switch 2. After some mild panic, I was finally able to get it charging so I could resume downloading. It was peak Nintendo – an unnecessarily complicated approach to an otherwise straightforward and established technology.

When I fired up Mario World, though, I was surprised – it was really fun. It was extremely easy to jump into an online race, where I was confronted with 23 other players jockeying for position while firing off Bullet Bills and Blue Shells. It was total madness and it felt like I was getting blown up every 30 seconds or so, but I had a great time. As I mentioned on Axe of the Blood God, I’m not the biggest Mario Kart fan, but Mario Kart World’s expanded scope and enjoyable online races should be enough to hold me until some more games arrive.

What to look for going forward

In many ways, the early online enthusiasm for Switch 2 isn’t a good gauge for its long-term prospects. To wit, the N64 was one of the hottest toys of 1996 before fizzling out due to a lack of games. That shouldn’t be a problem for Switch 2, which will be home to a strong mix of indies and first-party exclusives, but it could run into other issues. Nintendo nearly ran into disaster when President Donald Trump introduced high tariffs earlier this year, forcing it to delay pre-orders while it reexamined the price. Nintendo ultimately kept the Switch at $450, but console prices keep going up. If anything ends up dampening enthusiasm for the Switch 2, says Ampere analyst Piers Harding-Rolls, it’s an unexpected price rise.

Piscatella says “there’s very little (basically no) correlation between launch sales of a hardware platform and its ultimate lifetime sales.”

“So, if Nintendo makes a ton and gets them out there for launch (as I'm expecting they will), then Switch 2 could be the biggest new hardware launch in history. But while that would certainly be a great achievement, ultimately its launch year (and beyond) success will come down to how much the mass market beyond the day 1 enthusiasts buys in. And this of course will depend on software, pricing, consumer preferences and all the other many unquantifiable factors that make up the sales soup.”

Drings says he’ll be keeping an eye on the use of GameChat in the early going. He’ll also be following Nintendo’s digital share. “A new Switch 1 game can see around 80 percent of its sales come via the boxed version. Switch is not a big digital console in the same way as Xbox or even PlayStation. For physical fans, that’s part of the appeal, but for Nintendo that impacts its profit margins at a time when those are more important than ever. We’ve seen Nintendo in some markets price digital games lower than physical games. We’ve seen them limit the options when it comes to cart sizes that third-parties can use. I am not suggesting this is being done to boost digital sales, but it could have that impact, which would allow Nintendo to deliver improved profits, even if they don’t sell as many machines this time around.”

We’ll get our first indicators of the Switch 2’s long-term prospects when Nintendo’s annual general meeting of shareholders convenes on June 27, which should provide some initial numbers. Circana will release its hardware and software sales figures for June on July 23, and Nintendo’s three month earnings release will be August 1.

I’m personally expecting a solid performance out of the gate for the Switch 2, but I don’t think there’s any way it matches the success of the Switch, which was a perfect storm of generationally great game releases, novel hardware, and events well beyond Nintendo’s controller. It’s hard to imagine a sensation anywhere approaching Animal Crossing: New Horizons, which just happened to be the right game at the right time during the COVID-19 pandemic. Remember Animal Talking? As it stands, the Switch is the third highest selling console of all time with more than 152 million units, which is a feat that isn’t to replicate. Ampere agrees – its outlook has the Switch 2 falling short of the Switch in terms of sales.

It might not have to match the Switch, though. As Dring points out in the thoughts he sent to me, Nintendo is an IP business. “Zelda is more than triple the size it was before the Switch generation, Luigi’s Mansion 3 has sold 3x as many units as Luigi’s Mansion 2, Animal Crossing has more than doubled, Mario Kart has nearly doubled… even smaller IP like Pikmin and Fire Emblem are bigger brands today than eight years ago. That is Nintendo’s position of strength and is what will ultimately determine its success and failure, whether that’s on Switch 2 or at the Box Office or at theme parks.”

That business will only continue to grow with the Switch 2. “There are more LEGO sets, more theme parks, more dedicated stores, and of course more movies. Switch 2 is the central thread that links all of these things together. I’d be keenly watching what Nintendo does alongside the 2026 Mario movie and the 2027 Zelda adaptation. All big opportunities for Switch 2.

And when it comes to metrics, this is the area to watch. The focus this year from Nintendo has been on re-establishing Donkey Kong. We had a Switch remaster, he’s in Mario Kart, he has a standalone game, he has a new theme park area… so how Donkey Kong Bonanza performs will be fascinating (although it won’t all be about the launch).

It’s a far cry from 10 years ago – when real questions hovered around how successfully Nintendo would be able combine its handheld and home console business. It’s seems obvious now, but there was a time when a lot of observers wondered whether Nintendo would ever recover from the Wii U. In that sense, the Switch 2 isn’t a new era for Nintendo – that era is already well underway.

Nintendo Headlines: Final Fantasy Tactics Remaster confirmed for Switch 2

Amid the launch of the Switch launch, there are plenty of other Nintendo headlines. Yesterday, a Final Fantasy Tactics remaster was announced during Sony’s State of Play showcase, which was quickly confirmed for the Switch 2. This is great news for Nintendo fans given the rich history of Final Fantasy Tactics on handheld — up until now, the best versions of the series have been on Vita and GBA (Final Fantasy Tactics Advance is still a banger). I can’t wait to revisit this one on Switch 2. Some other headlines:

• Nintendo is politely asking Super Smash Bros. fans to stop using Mii Fighter until Switch 2 compatibility issues are addressed.

• A new patent suggests that Ring Fit Adventure could be getting a sequel on Switch 2.

• Deltarune Chapters 3 and 4 are out and they’re already blowing up. But watch out for spoilers!

• Unlucky Switch 2 fans had their screens punctured due to store receipts stapled into the console’s box.

• I’ll be streaming Switch 2 with Axe of the Blood God co-host Nadia Oxford on Twitch at 2pm PT / 5pm ET on Thursday. Come join us! 

Video Roundup: See the Switch 2 in action

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